October records a 2% volume increase, year on year, with WorldACD analysis highlighting some apparent ‘preloading’ of China-US technology shipments
After recording a year on year (YoY) drop in September, air cargo volumes in October showed a small YoY increase of 2% worldwide, along with higher prices month on month (MoM) and YoY, data from WorldACD reveals.
Analysis by WorldACD also highlights some apparent ‘preloading’ of China-US technology shipments ahead of expected tariff increases from January, although those increases in tariff rates from 10% to 25% on US imports of Chinese goods now seem set to be postponed for a further 90 days.
Average worldwide air cargo yields rose to US$1.99 in October, 7% higher than in October 2017, and 3 cents (1.5%) higher than in September 2018. Measured in euros, average worldwide yields increased by 10%, year over year.
In terms of utilsation, average load factors decreased by 1.3 percentage points, YoY, but increased by 2.8 points, MoM, from their levels in September.
Three regions recorded growth in both outgoing and incoming air cargo: Asia Pacific performed best, with growth percentages of 4.2% and 2.7%, respectively. For Europe, the corresponding percentages were 0.5% and 2.7%, and for MESA (Middle East & Souh Asia) 3.4% and 0.1%.
In other areas, the picture was mixed: Africa and North America grew in incoming but contracted in outgoing traffic, whilst Central & South America showed the opposite trend. Both In October and in the Year-to-Date, the highest region-to-region growth was observed from Central & South America to Asia Pacific (+33% in October), mainly driven by the export of seafood.
In terms of yields, expressed in US$, the origin region Asia Pacific recorded the largest YoY increase (10.4%), mainly caused by a 14.3% yield growth in the market from Asia Pacific to North America. For thhe origin regions Africa and North America, yields increased by 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Other areas saw a more modest increase.
For the first 10 months of 2018 to the end of October, the average yield increase globally, YoY, stands at 13.4%, accompanied by a volume growth YoY of 3.1%.
One remarkable yield development was noticed in the October market: from Hong Kong to the USA, the yield (at US$4.47) increased by 19.5%, YoY, 35 cents higher even than the peak yield in November last year.